Wednesday, November 12, 2008

HW Title Tourney: Round 1, Randy vs Brock

All right. It's coming up, Saturday night Randy Couture returns to the Octagon with perhaps his stiffest test in the last few years...perhaps, objectively, of his career. Brock Lesnar, for whatever reason he doesn't deserve it (and there are many (many, many, many)), is going to be allowed to step in against the living legend for a slice of the UFC heavyweight title.
Brock's pros: he's huge. He's fast. He's strong and has great balance and hits very hard. Cons: Zero experience. Slow hands. No finishing outside of the ape-attack. Unknown chin, poor sub defense (apparently).

Couture's pros: Experience in every single imaginable aspect of the sport. World-class conditioning, Greco-Roman grappling. Possibly the best camp in the sport. Possibly the best game-planner in the sport, ever. Cons: Older. Smaller than Brock. Not necessarily the best fighter off his back.

X-factor: All the unknowns about Lesnar. What's his chin like? If Brock walks into well-designed a punch from Randy, is he going to fall like Sylvia or sleep? Is Randy going to be able to stop his bull-rush takedowns, which honestly can be breathtaking? Does Lesnar have an actual five-round gas tank?

I'm going to go on record right now and say Randy Couture is going to win this fight and defend his belt. I am also going to say this: it is a razor close decision, in my mind, and I don't know how he's going to do it. He could literally take the big galoot down and pound him out in the first round, or he could put together a deliberate five-round point win, or anything in between. Fuck, Lesnar could be pounding the shit out of Randy in the third, and fall prey to a clever anaconda choke out of nowhere. Lesnar could win this fight too. He could win in the first round. He hits like a god damn truck. But Randy's fought hard hitters, and knows how to counter everything.

If I had to guess...Randy Couture wins, by a choke, in the fourth round.

Or something else.

There's some other fights going on too. Kenny Florian faces what's gotta be a #1 eliminator fight in Joe Daddy Stevenson. Both guys fought once for the lightweight belt and got beat down pretty bad by their opponent's favored method, Kenny by UD vs. Sean Sherk and Joe Daddy by murder against BJ Penn in the famous "Crying and squirting blood" matchup. This is a tough one to call as well...both guys are like funhouse mirror images of the other, supremely dedicated fighters who've raised their games on willpower and work. I see Kenny coming in with the better gameplan and winning a decision. Joe Daddy could pull of a win here too. I don't read betting lines because I suck at it, but it feels like a Stevenson win would be a small upset. Kenny Florian is one of my favorite fighters, so take that into account.

josh Hendricks is going to try and prove himself against Gabe Gonzaga. If Gonzaga shows up strong and focused, he will destroy up-and-coming Hendricks. If he doesn't, Hendricks will destroy him. I think Hendricks takes the torch here.

Nate Quarry-Demian Maia could be awesome or it could suck. I'm going for awesome...dynamic and constantly on edge, in my view Maia figures out a sub at some point in the second round, and has his hand lifted while blood pours out of his eyebrow. Don't count out Quarry though, he is a very exciting fighter who will never stop working.

The rest of the fights I'm not picking. There's all sorts of stuff, plus a couple that could turn entertaining, but I have no money based on that shit, so pick it yourself. I'm drunk now and going to bed.

1 comment:

Reverend Clint said...

Quarry is gonna win bitch!

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