Thursday, August 23, 2007

Performify's picks at UFCJ

As usual Performify shows us his thinking on the upcoming UFC 74 card for Saturday. I'm jacked for this one, and I've pondered it long and hard. I came to a lot of the same conclusions as Performify, but there are a couple discrepancies. For one, he's got Marcus Aurelio beating Clay Guida in one of the undercard fights. I disagree with this pick, mainly based on the gas tank. Guida comes on at about 100 miles per hour and never stops. He fights like a Tasmanian devil and is exceptionally dynamic going from level to level, and will out-cardio Aurelio at the end, either by ground-and-pound or a choke brought on by strikes. Aurelio is a great fighter, but Guida has an unstoppable motor. I'd sure like to see this card instead of Kendall Grove vs. Patrick "The Submittee" Cote. Feh.
Performify also believes David Heath will be able to pull off the mild upset against Babalu Sobral. While I don't fault his reasoning, I think he's looking at Babalu wrong, believing he'll be tentative. He's right in saying that if Sobral loses, he's probably out of the UFC. I think this will make him even more ferocious. Lambert outfought Babalu pretty well in their matchup, but Sobral is a lion. He'll take some licks but I think he'll come through in the end and show his heart.
Perfomify has Grove by decision, while I think he'll submit Cote within two minutes. Maybe three. For a while, I thought maybe he'd submit him so fast that it would acutally warp time, and send us back before the fight, in which case I could make a lot of money remembering the undercard, but no, I think Grove's submission will come within the standard flow of linear space-time as we generally perceive it.
Sadly for UFCjunkie, most weeks we see at least one or two articles shilling bodog's sports book, and all of his articles analyzing fights come from a wagering perspective. I have nothing against wagering, believe me, but I'd like to see fight analysis from what I consider one of the top three MMA sites in the world that doesn't include a sportsbook line. His picks are generally well thought-out and interesting, but when, in the GSP-Koscheck fight, for instance, he bases his call on "a small play at this line", it kind of makes me go, "Eh". I personally don't see how Koscheck can beat GSP...I know I've overestimated GSP in the past (Hi, Matt!) but come on...Matt Hughes couldn't take down GSP. Is Koscheck that much better a wrestler than Hughes? We know for a fact that Kos has no striking compared to GSP, and the repeated takedown is his only offense. I see a KO or dominating decision win for GSP, and a rematch with a Matt of some variety.
Performify also sees Randy "The Natural" Couture as being unable to beat Gonzaga. I thought there was no way Randy could beat Tim Sylvia. I mean, he's got most of the same problems he had against Sylvia...size, age, striking, etc. And what did he do? Dominate Sylvia for 25 minutes, like a dog ripping at a bone. Gonzaga is impressive, I'll grant you. But no one is smarter than Randy, and no one comes in more determined. Of course Couture could lose, all fighters can lose. Ask GSP. But Randy won't. I have Randy winning by TKO in the fourth, covered in blood. One of these dudes is leaving on a stretcher. Either way, it should be a war, so keep your hats firmly on your head or they may fly off.
Ok, I don't know if anyone can tell but I'm pumped.

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