Mir-Nog

A lot of people are giving Frank Mir zero shot to beat Big Nog in their upcoming matchup. I have to disagree. Frank Mir may have a big hill to climb, but it's far from an impossible task for the former UFC heavyweight champ.
Mir certainly doesn't bring the same resume Nog does to their showdown. But he does bring a supremely effective MMA BJJ game, and one of the strongest grips you're likely to see in any weight class. He's just now getting back into form, four years after his devastating motorcycle accident cost him his belt. Nogueira comes in having looked downright beatable in his last two fights, despite, to his immense credit, finding victory in both, against heath Herring and Tim Sylvia. Nog has a couple inches but comes in lighter.
I'll make two predictions on this fight, and seeing how I normally fare in title fights, I expect to be wrong on both counts: Either Mir will surprise Nog with a hard shot and finish him with a sub (something neither Herring nor Sylvia had the capability of doing) during Nog's "warm-up" period (the first 3-4 minutes of the fight), or Nog will weather that initial storm, watch Mir gas, and TKO or sub Mir in the second.
Or something else.